Someone is not being totally honest. On March 25, 2011 AFP (via Breitbart.com) reported a story of Justice Secretary Ken Clarke warning of another Lockerbie style attack. This was a very specific warning considering the broad scope of possible threats to civilians. Thats because Clarke and other officials had already received the report of Al-Qaeda stealing nearly 100 Surface to Air Missiles from Libyan munition dumps. That was reported by AFP today, March 26. Instead of just telling us-he dropped a hint based on the intel. Thanks for nothing mate!
The original story was cautious and specific due to the report they received. It would have stayed that way had it not been for at least 3 individuals now confirming the theft excluding people already named in the two reports.
Stolen or Given to Al-Qaeda?
DEVELOPING. Remember that Gaddhafi has spent more time letting the world know that Al-Qaeda forces have teamed up with the rebels against him. However, munitions depots have been opened to arm his supporters whom in turn have been captured and/or killed by rebels. Some upon capture have defected. Retaliation is likely. Conducting an attack in the conflicted area has a zero percent probability. Again this is why we got the “Lockerbie” warning from Ken Clarke. (This section will be updated as new intel is confirmed)
Where are they heading? Where will they Fire from?
DEVELOPING. Recent communications suggest the number of (stolen) Surface to Air Missiles is lower than 100k. Possibly as low as 30k (text msg translation error)19k may have made it into hands of Al-Qaeda but unconfirmed. There is still a question of distinction between RPG’s and SAM’s.(NOTE: SAM models have not been identified-high numbers indicate shoulder fire rockets-NOT large Vehicle mounted units) While Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s territory operates more comfortably just south of Libya and more towards Western Africa; security has already been heightened in those areas.
Moving East allows them to easily transport SAM’s into states that are currently having trouble maintaining security(ie Egypt, Sudan, and Somalia). It also give them access to many international commercial flight paths (more than central Africa) and multiple targets. Serious security flaws exist in both the East Africa as well as West Africa. Snippets from Sudanese revamp of Air Traffic Control.
The sudan air space as big as it is consist of an important flight segment that one determined by the African political landscape due to its international alliance during the cold war era the pre-U SSR brake up were most of the European in and out traffic to Africa forced to fly Sudan Air Space and ovoid the Libyan and Ethiopian FIR s .
The same wide diversion away from Libyan airspace is happening now and it is also why radicals are heading east. Compromised ground security, flaws in air traffic control make areas mentioned above most likely strike points.
Today, with the new technology, especially satellite navigation, we are no longer dependent on ground-based navigation aids, so commercial aircraft no longer need to make frequent contact with the ground
RE: Intel Confirmation-Continuing process and will add updates as they become available.